Starship Will Take Us to the Moon – Space Tourists Go First
Want space insights like these in your inbox? Subscribe for weekly analysis.
We explore space for many reasons. One of them is to bring the world together in international cooperation. Or, if not the whole world, at least the US and its allies.
I’d like to congratulate those working hard behind the scenes to bring new nations into partnership through the Artemis Accords. In the past month or so, three additional countries have signed – Iceland, the Netherlands, and Bulgaria – bringing the total to 32 signatories.
While the Artemis Accords serves many purposes, and is separate from NASA’s Artemis program, I think there is an underlying genius to a multilateral agreement centered on cooperation and norms of behavior as we look outward to the Moon and beyond.
It’s easy to point to US leadership when we’re gathering countries together in a multilateral agreement. It’s a good counter to China’s own space leadership efforts. And it’s much harder for the US Congress to cancel an international effort to explore the Moon given the first two points.
As we look ahead to government and commercial crewed missions to the Moon and beyond, efforts like the Artemis Accords can snowball from the modest eight initial cooperating signatories to become a truly unifying force in the world.
We can progress outward together.
All the best,
Laura Forczyk, Executive Director
Photo courtesy of NASA
Starship Will Take Us to the Moon – Space Tourists Go First
Starship Status
Announced in 2012 as the Mars Colonial Transporter or Mass Cargo Transport (MCT)
Other names have included Interplanetary Transport System (ITS) and Big Falcon Rocket or Big Fucking Rocket (BFR)
First high-altitude test on December 9, 2020, reaching 12.5 km, followed by a 10 km test on February 2, 2021
First orbital attempt on April 20, 2023
Next orbital test expected as soon as Nov. 17, but the FAA has not yet issued a launch license as of Friday
Private Starship Lunar Missions
DearMoon Project
Circumlunar flight
Announced 2018
Funded by Yusaku Maezawa
Nine passengers plus SpaceX-employed crew
Passengers include Yusaku Maezawa plus eight creatives/influencers
In 2018, mission date announced to be 2023
During the 2018 announcement, Elon Musk said "We're definitely not sure" about the 2023 date. "We need to set a 'things go right' date... We're not even sure we can bring it to flight... but we're going to do everything humanly possible."
Announcement Nov. 9, 2023 that mission has been delayed
Dennis Tito and his wife Akiko
Circumlunar flight
Purchased seats in 2021, announced in 2022
Ten additional seats available on the flight
Mission date TBD
Dennis Tito was the first "space tourist" in 2001 on the ISS
Other Private Crewed Starship Missions
Polaris Program Mission III
Announced in 2022
Funded by Jared Isaacman
Starship will be used for 3rd mission in Polaris Program series (4th mission for Jared Isaacman; 1st was Inspiration4 in 2021)
Mission date TBD
Trajectory/destination and mission not yet announced
Advertised to be the first crewed flight on Starship
Polaris Dawn (1st mission) in early 2024. Assuming annual missions, this could mean first crewed Starship launch NET 2026.
Polaris Dawn will launch more than 2 years after Inspiration4, so an annual launch cadence seems reasonable or even optimistic. For comparison, Axiom Space's private astronaut missions (PAMs) to the ISS using SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon initially planned for a launch cadence of twice per year (approximately every 6 months) but have become approximately annual: April 2022, May 2023, and NET January 2024.
Government Starship Lunar Missions
NASA Artemis Starship HLS Status
NASA awarded SpaceX contracts for Starship Human Landing System (HLS) for Artemis 3 and Artemis 4
High visibility, high priority
Artemis 3 scheduled for Dec. 2025 (…not going to happen…). Could potentially launch in 2026 but most likely 2027 or later. Original (EM-3) launch date planned for 2028 prior to Vice President Mike Pence’s speech in Nov. 2019.
Private crewed circumlunar missions can prove the technology and prepare SpaceX and NASA for human landing missions
SpaceX must land at least one uncrewed Starship to the lunar surface and back to demonstrate readiness for Artemis 3. This could be Venturi Astrolab's FLEX rover mission, currently scheduled for mid 2026, or another mission.
NASA Artemis HLS Delays
In April 2021, Blue Origin and Dynetics protested NASA's sole-source HLS award to SpaceX, stopping work on HLS.
In August 2021, NASA Government Accountability Office (GAO) rejected the bid protest.
Blue Origin filed suit against NASA following that decision in August.
In Nov. 2021, the Court of Federal Claims ruled against Blue Origin, allowing SpaceX HLS work to resume.
Also in Nov. 2021, NASA Office of Inspector General (OIG) noted that Congress significantly underfunded HLS in FY 2021, contributing to delays.
Technical delays from test flights
NASA considering delaying 1st lunar landing to Artemis 4 if SpaceX HLS not ready in time.
Astralytical Analysis
SpaceX is under a lot of pressure to succeed with Starship orbital test flight ASAP.
First crewed Starship mission likely to be 3rd Polaris Program mission, potentially not until 2026.
Private customers are more willing to take personal risks than NASA is willing to risk high-profile Artemis 3 and its crew.
Private crewed orbital and circumlunar Starship missions could help SpaceX prepare Starship for lunar landings
When technologically ready, Starship HLS for Artemis 3 will be a higher priority for SpaceX than any other SpaceX crewed missions.
If SpaceX can prove itself with NASA Artemis, private lunar landing missions are very likely (maybe post 2035)
Jared Isaacman is a likely candidate for a future Starship lunar landing private/tourism mission.
Starship crewed Moon missions are preparing SpaceX for future crewed Mars missions.
Astralytical Activities
We are wrapping up the initial phase of a lunar market research investigation for a client. To gain new insights into commercial lunar company needs, we interviewed executives, business development specialists, lunar scientists, and lunar hardware engineers. Our findings will help our client to identify their target customers and refine their services and offerings.
Can we assist your growth in the space industry? Contact us to discuss your needs and goals.
Astralytical in the News
Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic to lay off 185 employees
That’s bad news for Virgin Galactic, which needs time to ensure the safety of its vehicles and passengers and to build a track record of successful flights, said Laura Forczyk, executive director of space consulting firm Astralytical.
“Virgin Galactic really does need to take their time to ramp up operations,” she said. “There are very few investors that would be willing to have that patience.”
“The pressures of raising money for stakeholders and being so public about their finances, and the lack of investor environment right now contributes to the fact that companies have been doing mass layoffs and some companies might go under,” Forczyk said.
Thank you for being part of the Astralytical community! Contact us to discuss how we can help you grow your business in space.