Artemis II is NOT Launching in 2024 and Other 2024 Space Predictions
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Happy new year to you all! As I look forward to what 2024 will bring for the space community, I’m optimistic. Despite challenges, now is in excellent time to be involved in space.
Last year, Astralytical grew its team and was able to serve government, commercial, and nonprofit clients. We worked with ESA, the Space Foundation, some early-stage space startups, and many entrepreneurs working on their pitches, striving to enter our fast-growing space industry.
I’m excited to see what this new year brings for Astralytical and for us all. Thank you for being along for the ride.
All the best,
Laura Forczyk, Executive Director
Credit: ESA
Artemis II is NOT Launching in 2024 and Other 2024 Space Predictions
We at Astralytical are not usually in the business of fortune telling, that is, forecasts and projections. However, once per year, it is fun to bet on what the new year may bring. Here’s what we might expect from 2024.
Artemis II will slip from November 2024 to 2025
Artemis II (Exploration Mission-2) has a history of slipping past its announced launch date.
The Government Accountability Office (GAO) in November concluded that the Artemis III mission would be delayed until early 2027.
This projection is optimistic because Artemis is a high-profile human spaceflight program with a low risk tolerance.
Artemis II likely to be delayed for similar reasons.
GOA and NASA Office of Inspector General (OIG) have identified several sources of current and future delays, including but not limited to: supply chain, mobile launchers, Orion refurbishments, spacesuits, and the human landing system (applicable to Artemis III).
Launches scheduled far in advance for the end of the year almost always slip into the next year.
High-profile missions with humans on board will prioritize safety over schedule.
At least one US (uncrewed) lander will successfully land on the Moon
Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) has been described as "shots on a goal" by NASA – risking a lower probability of success than traditional higher-cost missions but conducting many of them.
Astrobotic and Intuitive Machines have missions scheduled to launch in January and February, respectively.
Intuitive Machines has three possible missions on the manifest and Astrobotic has two for 2024, although delays are likely.
Firefly has a Blue Ghost mission scheduled for 2024. However, with its Alpha rocket second state malfunction in December, Blue Ghost launching in 2024 may be a lesser priority.
Credit: SpaceX
Starship will successfully launch to orbit in 2024
SpaceX tests frequently.
SpaceX is highly incentivized to bring Starship to operations for its government and commercial customers and its own Starlink deployment.
Due to the nature of the incidents in November, notably the lack of pad damage and environmental disruption, it's likely the FAA will grant SpaceX a launch license sooner than the April to November gap in 2023.
None of the Starship engines failed during the November test flight.
SpaceX will launch over 100 times in 2024
SpaceX launched 96 successful times out of 98 attempts in 2023.
SpaceX shows no sign of slowing down.
Baring an unexpected catastrophe, SpaceX will easily surpass its own record in 2024.
Credit: Sierra Space
Sierra Space's Dream Chaser will take flight in 2024
The Dream Chaser project began under SpaceDev in 2004.
Sierra Space raised in September $290M in a Series B round, bringing the total raised to $1.7 billion to date.
Dream Chaser Tenacity has been built and is in its final stages of preparation for an announced April 2024 launch.
Do you agree? Disagree? What are your space predictions for 2024? We will revisit this analysis at the end of the year to see how well the year and our guesses went.
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