US & Allies versus China & Allies to the Moon?
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US & Allies versus China & Allies to the Moon?
Echoing the past space age, a new global competition has emerged between two global powers seeking to conduct activities on and around the Moon. But instead of the US versus the Soviet Union, China has emerged as the major competitor to the US in space.
China is attracting international partners in its effort to establish a lunar base. How does China’s international collaboration compare to the international collaboration the US is leading?
China’s International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) Partnership
Announced timeline:
Reconnaissance: 2021–2025
Construction: 2026–2035
Utilization: from 2036
Countries:
Azerbaijan
Belarus
China
Egypt
Pakistan
Russia
South Africa
Venezuela
The Egyptian Space Agency is the most recent partner, signing agreements with China on Dec. 6.
None of the ILRS partners have significant space experience except for China and Russia. Although Russia was China's main partner with ILRS, Russia has sunk to become a junior partner in the effort.
In addition to countries, some organizations and companies are also involved in ILRS.
Companies & organizations:
Adriatic Aerospace Association (Croatia)
Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization
International Lunar Observatory Association (Hawaii)
nanoSPACE AG (Switzerland)
National Astronomical Research Institute of Thailand
University of Sharjah (UAE)
US Lunar Space Partnerships
The closest US equivalent to the ILRS collaboration are the Artemis Accords and the Gateway lunar space station.
Artemis Accords:
Angola
Argentina
Australia
Bahrain
Brazil
Bulgaria
Canada
Colombia
Czech Republic
Ecuador
France
Germany
Iceland
India
Isle of Man
Israel
Italy
Japan
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Nigeria
Poland
South Korea
Romania
Rwanda
Saudi Arabia
Singapore
Spain
Ukraine
United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom
United States
Lunar Gateway (in development):
NASA
Canadian Space Agency (CSA)
European Space Agency (ESA)
Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)
The Gateway involves all of the current ISS partners except for Russia's Roscosmos. Roscosmos plans build its own space station, but these plans seem very unlikely given Russia's financial, economic, skilled personnel, corruption, and quality control challenges.
The following are two notable Artemis partners who are not yet involved in the Gateway effort but are involved in the Artemis missions.
India:
Signed Artemis Accords in June
NASA to train Indian astronauts for a mission to the ISS as early as 2024
Australia:
Australian Space Agency will send a rover (named Roo-ver) on an Artemis mission as soon as 2026
In addition to Gateway and brief lunar landing sorties, NASA plans to create a long-term base (or multiple bases) on the surface.
Artemis Base Camp:
No firm plans at this time
May be more than one smaller camp
Likely Artemis 7 or later according to Jim Free, NASA's associate administrator for exploration systems development
Astralytical Analysis
China is leading the way to create ILRS and will accomplish their goal regardless of who is involved
China is lacking strong spacefaring partners in its international collaboration at this time
The Gateway collaboration includes strong international support and therefore will likely continue to operations
China's plans for a lunar base came are ahead of NASA's plans
Although the US will return astronauts to the Moon before China’s first crewed mission, China may establish a lunar base before the US does
Recent Astralytical Insights
Japan Brings Slow & Steady Trajectory to Global Moon “Race”
By Patrick Chase
Japan is one of the most advanced spacefaring nations on Earth and is poised to continue playing a leading role in 21st century space exploration. The US, China, Russia, and India are leading a renewed geopolitical surge outward to the Moon and beyond and Japan is quietly but firmly in the mix.
With decades of experience and a highly mature space economy to lean on, Japan is a major space power jockeying for influence and opportunity in this new space age.
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