GAO Optimistic about Multiple Artemis Challenges

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A new US Government Accountability Office (GAO) report was published November 30:

NASA ARTEMIS PROGRAMS: Crewed Moon Landing Faces Multiple Challenges

Note: The report was written in September, before SpaceX Starship's latest test flight.

SpaceX Challenges

Long delays between Starship test flights
The Human Landing System (HLS) program had delayed 8 of 13 key events by at least 6 months
SpaceX used more than 50% of its total schedule to reach PDR in November 2022 (NASA average about 35%)
SpaceX submitted deliverables early for approx 74% of Artemis III contract payment milestones that have been completed
In-space propellant transfer test delayed
HLS officials said that reaching orbit is essential

SpaceX HLS mega important to-do list:

In-space Propellant Storage and Transfer test
Raptor engine development

Axiom Space Challenges

PDR in November 2023
NASA is requiring Axiom to develop a suit that can provide 60 minutes of emergency life support, more than any suit in history
NASA government reference design did not satisfy the requirement to make the suit capable of storing that amount of oxygen
Redesign may be necessary
Axiom plans to incorporate, design, and certify new technologies— i.e., batteries, pumps, and electronic component

Axiom spacesuit mega to-do list:

Possible redesign to support emergency life support
Need to mature critical technologies

Astralytical Analysis

The GAO concluded that the Artemis III mission would likely occur in early 2027.
They determined that the average major project development length (since 2010) has been 92 months. Taking that average for Artemis III, the launch would be in early 2027
Arguably, taking the average is very optimistic because Artemis is a high-profile human spaceflight program with a low risk tolerance. Project development is likely to take longer than average.
Astralytical’s estimate: Artemis III NET 2027, more likely in the latter half of the year or later.

November Activities

In November, we:

🌙 Wrapped up phase 1 of a Moon-related market demand study for a client.

🪐 Continued work on a NASA-funded planetary science mission concept.

❄️ Began assisting a client on ice drilling proposal research.

Recent Astralytical Insights

High Ambitions/Low Bar: Initial Rocket Launch Goals

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What are the chances that a new rocket will launch on time? And if it doesn’t, how long is the delay between the initial launch goal and the actual rocket launch? What are the potential consequences of ghost rocket contracts, whether a company hits its initial launch goal, or not?

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Astralytical in the News

Here’s What’s Next for SpaceX’s Starship

“I thought it was fantastic partial success, and really good progress forward. It got some milestones accomplished that needed to happen,” says Laura Forczyk, an Atlanta-based space industry consultant. “Not only SpaceX but also NASA, which is SpaceX’s most important customer, was pleased with the results,” she added, referring to NASA chief Bill Nelson’s praise on social media following the launch.

These test flights demonstrate how SpaceX’s development style differs from NASA’s, Forczyk says: While NASA tested every component to perfection before its Space Launch System and Orion spacecraft could launch—with federal agencies, Congress, and the White House looking over the agency’s shoulder—SpaceX improves by launching over and over again, seeking to do better with each effort.

“With each test flight, they are going to have greater standards for themselves, because they really need to move quickly,” Forczyk says.

GAO Optimistic about Multiple Artemis Challenges