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Evolving Expectations for Commercial Lunar Landers

Astrobotic’s Mission One was one of a new slew of NASA-funded commercial enterprises fixated on the Moon to provide lunar transportation and facilitate exploration. Expectations for the mission were high, especially after ULA’s Vulcan launch, which lifted off without a hiccup.

Instead, Peregrine’s “propulsion anomaly” made it a lunar lander that couldn’t land. The lander eventually traveled back to Earth, where it re-entered the Earth’s atmosphere and harmlessly disintegrated.

While the anomaly was mission-ending, it shouldn’t be surprising. Commercial startups conducting lunar activities is a relatively new concept, with corresponding inflated expectations. The Gartner Hype Cycle usefully illustrates where the commercial lunar exploration industry is within the cycle.

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