China’s Lunar Ambitions Rising As NASA Squeezes Science for Lunar Push

Is a second Space Race fully underway?

While it may or may not be an actual “race” in the Cold War sense, it is clear that both the United States and China are aiming to put boots on the Moon in the near future while tensions between the two nations are rising on Earth. NASA appears poised to finally return to the lunar surface after decades of failed promises, with Congress affirming their support at the expense of NASA’s science programs.

The rising tension between the two major space powers could increasingly cleave the global space economy in two, generating negative impacts as well as opportunities for the rapidly growing private space ecosystem. While it is possible for the two powers to become closer in the future, recent years have seen them race further apart over issues such as Taiwan, the War in Ukraine, Hong Kong, Chinese surveillance balloons, and trade.

China and the United States do not have much of any history of co-operation in space and China does not participate in the International Space Station. While the nations do maintain ties and top US officials visit China regularly, there is simply no reason to believe that the US and China will harmonize their Moon exploration programs in the future.

There are a few key questions to contemplate in the years ahead regarding the Sino-American dynamic in space:

Which of the two powers maintains the broader international network of allied space states?
Which of the two powers will be first to unlock the vast economic and strategic potential that comes with controlling and developing cislunar space?
How confrontational is the Sino-American relationship on Earth and in space?

These questions do not yet have firm answers, but there are early indications as to how they will play out as both nations “race” to the Moon (and beyond). Whatever nation winds up in the dominant position in the cislunar ecosystem will be the primary creator of the economic, political, social, and military norms for the entire Solar System.

China’s Methodical Rise

The Chinese space program has been quite methodical and deliberate in their approach towards space exploration since the 1990s. After suffering through the tumult of Mao Zedong and the 1970s, followed by a series of commercial setbacks in the 1990s, the Chinese space program has developed a series of reliable and increasingly powerful rockets while setting their sights on increasingly more ambitious targets.

The Shenzhou-5 re-entry capsule, the first crewed Chinese craft to successfully take a human being to space and return them safely to the Earth. Source: Wikipedia.

They became the 3rd nation to demonstrate crewed launch capabilities with the success of the Shenzhou-5 mission in October 2003. Over the last 20 years they have progressively knocked off a series of impressive technological feats in space, making them now the clear #2 space power in the world:

2003 1st crewed launch

2005 1st multi-person, multi-day spaceflight

2007 1st Moon Orbiter, Chang’e-1

2008 1st EVA (Extra-Vehicular Activity, aka spacewalk)

2011 1st space station, Tiangong-1

2013 1st robotic soft landing on the Moon, incl. their 1st lunar rover, Yutu

2019 1st human soft landing on the far side of the Moon, Chang’e-4

2020 1st lunar sample return mission

2020 1st light at FAST telescope, most powerful radio observatory in history

2021 1st successful Mars mission Tianwen-1, incl. 1st Mars rover, Zhurong

2021 1st module launched for the Tiangong permanent space station

Rendering of China’s Tiangong space station. Source: Wikipedia

This steady rise for the Chinese space program comes as the Russian space program has steadily deteriorated in the last few years. Their previously stalwart Soyuz spacecraft has faced multiple incidents, and Western sanctions over the War in Ukraine have severely restricted technology supply chains, and Roscosmos has been reduced to recruitment for the war effort. International customers have become wary of launching with Russian rockets for fear of the sanctions regime. This collapse has led to China’s new role as the clear second major spacefaring power behind the United States.

The Chinese “private” space economy has also been growing rapidly in the last few years, with over 200 companies founded since 2014. The industry has begun to stretch its legs and establish some firsts of its own, including the July 2023 launch of the world's first methane-fueled rocket, a significant achievement and a demonstration of considerable innovative capability.

While not truly private in the Western sense (even those companies without government funding are subject to Communist Party controls and oversight), the addition of this vibrant new component of the Chinese space ecosystem only further solidifies their place as the second major space power. This growing commercial sector is also a prime vehicle for international collaboration, something of growing importance to the Chinese government.

Competition for Allies Comes Into Focus

In 2023 China kicked off a new round of activity in a realm it had historically been quiet in: international partnerships in space.

China has been increasingly focused on building up partnerships with budding space programs in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. They are actively working to bring international astronauts to the Tiangong space station, increasing the soft power capabilities of the Chinese space program. China has also developed a close relationship with the Brazilian space program, including a series of Earth observation satellites. A 2022 Chinese space agency white paper noted Pakistan, Venezuela, Egypt, Tunisia, and Argentina as potential space exploration partners.

The conflict with the United States has been particularly acute in this area. The 2011 Wolf Amendment from Congress put up numerous hurdles to prevent NASA from working with the Chinese space program, a restriction that has kept China out of the International Space Station program and has maintained a significant chasm between the US and China in space. In March 2023 US export control rules (ITAR)killed off a planned collaboration between the United Arab Emirates and China on their Chang’e-7 lunar mission. The European Space Agency has also declined opportunities to launch astronauts to the Tiangong space station due to US concerns.

China and Russia have also been growing increasingly close in space, particularly as Russia has become more directly opposed to the US and the West after their 2014 invasion of Ukraine and their 2022 escalation of that conflict. Recently they have been discussing joint construction of a Moon base, although it is clear that China is now the dominant player in the relationship, not Russia.

While this activity is notable for the Chinese space program, it pales in comparison to the broad global network that is the Artemis Accords.

The US-led Artemis Accords are a set of legally non-binding principles that guide space exploration and have been signed by 27 nations, including the major recent addition of India. They have survived both the Trump and Biden Administrations, demonstrating their longevity and durability in the US political system.

Map of the 27 nations that have signed the Artemis Accords, including major second tier space powers such as India, Brazil, France, and Canada. Source: Wikipedia

This proto-alliance is already hard at work developing this new cislunar infrastructure. The European Space Agency is playing an integral part in the Artemis program’s Gateway lunar space station, and Japan has also formally joined the program. For being the 1st Artemis signatory Canada has received the honor of sending an astronaut aboard the Artemis II mission to the vicinity of the Moon, with Jeremy Hansen on tap to become the first non-American in history to venture beyond Earth orbit.

While China has begun building out its international network of allies for their lunar exploration plans, it is clear that the US-led Artemis network is larger and more robust. However the Chinese-Russian collaboration is deep and quantifying the gap between the two networks is difficult.

The advantage the Artemis Accords hold is predicated on American leadership and investment, and any reduction in support or wavering of commitment by the US would close the gap and create a window for China to broaden their reach.

Congress Fully Supports Artemis But Hits the Rest of NASA

After decades of unfulfilled plans and promises, NASA is finally prepared to put boots back on the Moon. The Artemis I test was a success, and Artemis II is scheduled to launch in late 2024 to return humans to the vicinity of the Moon for the first time since the Apollo program. NASA has also spearheaded the development of the Artemis Accords, building out one of the most significant international networks for space exploration ever assembled.

The budget dynamics in 2023 were always destined to be rough after multiple years of growth and calls to rein in spending after the massive government expenditures during COVID-19. President Biden’s proposed 7% increase for NASA merely kept pace with inflation and came with budgetary pain of its own, namely the canceling of the VERITAS mission to Venus, and there were concerns House Republicans would pursue significant cuts.

The relevant committees in both the House and Senate have released their early, top-line funding numbers for NASA, and one thing is clear: Congress will be funding Artemis even as they cut everything else, with “strategic advantage” and competition with China a reason why. The Senate's $25.38 billion proposal is slightly lower than what NASA received in 2023 (which when including inflation amounts to a significant cut), which largely funds Artemis while threatening programs like the Mars Sample Return.

“We were able to protect the most important national priority within NASA’s budget, at least in my view, which is to return humans to the moon and maintain our strategic advantage in space,” said Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), ranking member of the CJS subcommittee (Source: Jeff Foust SpaceNews 6.14.23).

The House put forward a $25,37 billion proposal for NASA that fully funds all exploration programs but pairs that with an almost $500 million cut to NASA science programs. This makes it clear NASA will be receiving less than the Biden Administration requested, which in the era of inflation results in a substantive budget cut.

NASA Associate Administrator Bob Cabana addressed this at the July 12th Future Space 2023 conference saying “The president recommended $27.2 billion. We’re going to end up with less than that as we move forward…It’s going to require some hard decisions on our part. It may move things out a little bit longer. It may mean some things have to be stopped.” (Source: Jeff Foust SpaceNews 6.14.23)

A byproduct of the debt ceiling deal reached earlier this year means if Congress doesn’t pass a budget by the end of 2023, a 1% cut will take effect across the entire federal government, including NASA. While everyone says they don’t want this outcome, the chaotic dynamics of the House Republican conference may yet bring about this possibility. Even in this eventuality it seems highly likely NASA would prioritize Artemis above all else when deciding what to cut.

It seems the most likely outcome over the next few budget cycles is that NASA will get the money it needs to keep Artemis on track, but Congress won’t make it pretty, and NASA’s other budgetary priorities will be on the chopping block. This is a demonstration of just how attuned Congress is to the rising space competition with China.

The Shape of the New “Space Race”

Whoever returns to the Moon next will by default begin to shape the legal and regulatory environment there. Just by existing and operating on the Moon they will begin to set the standards for who can extract resources and profit off of them, who controls what amount of area around their settlements, standards relating to transparency and communications protocols, and so much more.

This early lead will lead to systemic advantages setting norms across all of cis-lunar space and the Solar System economy that will eventually grow from there. One only needs to look at the last 80-years of a US dominated global order to understand the benefits of being in the driver's seat when setting norms.

This turmoil and geopolitical tension bears both risks and rewards for the space sector and the booming private industry that has grown significantly in previous years. Many analysts agree that a full economic decoupling between the US and China would be highly disruptive to the global economy, with a 2021 IMF study highlighting reduced trade flows, misallocated resources, and reduced knowledge sharing.

Looking forward we return to the questions posed at the beginning to shape our understanding of the path ahead.

Which of the two powers maintains the broader international network of allied space states?
Which of the two powers will be first to unlock the vast economic and strategic potential that comes with controlling and developing cislunar space?
How confrontational is the Sino-American relationship on Earth and in space?

The American public has become increasingly concerned about China’s rise in space, with a 2021 Morning Consult poll finding 52% of Americans believe “China is a major threat to US leadership in space research,” while only 19% believed it was a “minor threat” and only 7% saying “no threat at all”. This majority cut across partisan, generational, and gender lines, with Americans of all backgrounds viewing China as a rising threat to US leadership in space.

The global space ecosystem is currently dominated by the United States and its partners in the Artemis Accords with their eyes set firmly on the Moon, with the qualified support of Congress. Yet China is rising fast as a major space power with the same destination in sight, with a growing “private” sector and an international coalition of its own, and American politicians (and the public) are increasingly wary.

Is it safe to say a second Space Race is fully underway?

Patrick Chase is a space writer, political junkie, and lifelong space enthusiast.

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